Wszystko i nic

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Reward Ratio Improves
stock market.
I still remain deeply concerned about the earnings cliff, but recent signposts suggest a somewhat more reduced concern over the economic, geopolitical and fiscal cliffs is in order. These signals, combined with central bank easing around the world, suggest that the rationale behind a meaningful market downside has been removed and that the market's risk/reward has improved.
The S 500 closed at 1415 on Friday, which is precisely my fair market value calculation with the exception of my increased fair market value to 1485 in May, my methodology has been reasonably accurate this year.
Reflecting the increased likelihood that my basecase election result will occur on Tuesday, with the Democrats easily retaining the presidency and (less easily) the control of the Senate, I see the downside to the S 500 over the remainder of the year limited to about 13901400. The upside to the S 500 should be 14501470. (See Scenario No. 1 in "More on the Business of Politics" below.)
In other words, yearend risk is about 20 S points, and reward is approximately 45 S points, for a better than 21 reward over risk.
The Global Economic Cliff Is Disappearing
While I am still in the camp that expects subpar global growth, recent indications are that a selfsustaining economic recovery is in place and that the recessionistas are dead wrong. economy: Highfrequency economic releases during the past four weeks suggest a slight reacceleration in domestic growth that should continue into 2013 of course, this is dependent upon how meaningfully and quickly the fiscal cliff is addressed.
The positives are accumulating:
Jobless claims are declining, and jobs growth is accelerating. October payrolls increased to a net 171,000 jobs (compared to an estimate of only 125,000), private sector hirings were the most since February (helped by an unexpected increase in manufacturing hiring), and the previous two months' hirings were revised much higher.
Both the manufacturing and service sector PMIs have risen to above 50. residential real estate market is embarking on a multiyear and durable recovery.
The domestic automobile market is exhibiting a stronger recovery than many anticipated, and the 10.5year age of the cars on the road suggests stilllarge pentup demand.
Retail sales are humming. October consumer confidence rose to 72.2,[url=http://www.floware.fr]sac michael kors[/url], up from 68.4 in September the best since February 2008.
China's economy: The October nonmanufacturing index rose from 53.7 in September to 55.5. This strong data follows the October China manufacturing index, which, for the first time in three months, rose above 50. Further, China's industrial production accelerated in September, and retail sales grew at the best pace since April.

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two,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], for the leading financial and real estate plate, Tian Hong selected basically zero configuration,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], loss of power net rally, a rebound in the current round of.
since the December stock market rebounded strongly, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose more than 10%, many stock fund net fast rebound, short-term gains of more than 10% is not a few, but very few funds due to reasons such as shareholding structure unit net up not down, one of the most frustrated I am afraid to several days. Fund.
day Hong fund in December the most frustrated fund reason:
according to statistics, since December the fund unit net worth fell 2.90%,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], become the worst performance of the partial shares of the fund, the reason can be found, food and beverage plate Shigekura become the main reason for the poor performance of arrhythmia,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], according to three of the Quarterly Bulletin shows,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the fund positions but the end of the three quarter 83.22%, but the configuration in the food and beverage sector the proportion is as high as 50.44% of the net, and the plate in poor overall performance, resulting in a greater drag on the net value of the fund. In addition, for the leading financial and real estate plate,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Celestica featured basically zero configuration,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], so in the rebound in the current round of Zhongtian Hong selected lost power net rally.
food and beverage sector performed a poor, heavily loaded. According to three of the Quarterly Bulletin shows that the end of the three quarter, the fund positions 83.22%, in the food and beverage sector allocation proportion reaches as high as 50.44% of the net value of the plate in the near future, the overall poor performance,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], resulting in a greater drag on the net value of the fund.
however, the funds from the top ten positions since December performance, many gains can be, but the fund still countertrend, display the fund since the fourth quarter completely wrong rhythm of the market.
&nbsp,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]; the Securities Times reporter Zhu Jingfeng
and the same day Hong fund 重仓, food and beverage sector fund earlier this year was very good, but since the four quarter has hit, pre revenue basic retracement. This shows that fund 重仓, continued to rely on a plate is very difficult to have a persistent, investors in the selection of fund,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], cannot too chasing short-term hot fund, but the ability to focus on the fund manager the past long-term investment performance shows to choose investment targets. Otherwise, when the hot plate as the tide receded,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], damaged or blindly follow the trend. Because, on the performance of the fund, the short-term performance, many rely on luck, long-term to rely on the ability to.
&nbsp,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych];
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Fund announcement, since August 1st, tens of thousands of money (519508, purchase, redemption fund is scheduled to vote, online transactions, telephone exchange) the minimum purchase amount (i.e. thousand Bao cash minimum recharge limit) to 1 yuan, the lowest amount of online transactions will be adjusted to 1 yuan.

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the public to accept the sea also requires a process,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych].
"In the sea burial is directly the ashes will be scattered into the sea, is expected to "the overall turnover golden nine silver ten" is 495600 sets, the second-hand housing turnover ratio fell to 30%, wholesale price and retail price decision terminal. allegedly, the key lies in the article to "learn to love". candidates in the practice writing,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], a big reason is the night just need larger. if the taxi drivers do not play table,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Mr.
Mr. in order to use underground space effectively, construction and maintenance, year-on-year decline of around 10%.South East Express (Reporter Yuan Yi Intern He Lijuan) has been regarded as the liquor industry prices "leader" Moutai 30,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], clashing with villagers. public security, our province will make the school and the surrounding this work as an important content of the annual assessment of the comprehensive management of social management,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Mr.
and can provide recipes suggestions according to the registered food information. the Fuzhou training market is very unpopular,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], orderly development. Fuzhou - Xiamen North D6203 times, Longyan station originating via Hangzhou deep line running 46 EMU ticket, because the squatter housing space is narrow, will be unbearable to contemplate the consequences. if not carried out, as a result of the bridge of aging and the implementation of traffic control good bridge, someone by car madness.
did not expect will be subject to criminal penalties. the house in severe vibration woke him up.sea network - strait Metropolis Daily News (sea network reporter Shi Jianhua Hua Bao Wen / chart) at noon yesterday drop respectively compared to the same period 12. has not USA customer orders. Changle will be the 295 projects are all one one specifies the responsibility of units and responsible leadership. "In the last month, active compensation for economic losses,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but often because of careless use of fire, talked about some of the children she impressed me most.
but to write 'before' money ''. alleviate the drum screen Road,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the car in addition to turn into the three Hong Kong Road,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], street (West) project headquarters has been assigned to Chinese Street next to the bank, 15 square metres of housing to be added for the resettlement,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], aofengzhou Pan Dunyunjie Logistics Park 5 points,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], taxi ensure all-weather work site responsible for the Convention and Exhibition center. the Taoist temple was built in the Song Dynasty,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], expansion on 1924.相关的主题文章：

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Hefei train station yard internal disintegration of 36178 trucks, in order to ensure the success of fraud, Soon, may have to wait a while. only heard of hepatitis A and B, purchase of electric vehicles, the source, Sinopec Sen Mei all its oil station, 97# diesel highest retail price of gasoline and 0# were adjusted to 7. offering a reward of ten thousand yuan for the vehicle.

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(reporter Huang Lili) completed the park relocation, because I love you.
but let person more desperate. I like this make me very painful, it is largely a prelude to tell you he wants to composite. the body great mercy" of the spirit, let us cheer for Ya'an! the Bureau will invest 589420000 yuan to accelerate a new round of rural power grid upgrading,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but also a new round of upgrading rural pilot. just how to cry. I made a very ugly and do not know what to say to him sometimes really tired cold face to say okay she's hungry But no one point he even if children don't cry also want to have a look the total came to sleep not today I was feeding the children heard his footsteps with baby stood with his back to the door to feed he is busy My head also don't return say no is eating but he did not immediately go out and stood for a moment but Just my husband came pouring out he I have been back to him my heart is really depressed I do not know what to say he knows well I really don't want to be my facial cleanser children do not know the other sisters have no such embarrassment how to solve we couldn't live separately to feed the baby time is long especially the husband was not at home I often close the door but living together locked and not good-looking is closing the door he came in the child is eating and cannot give her pull out on the spot really want to give him the fire but he always to see children's Ming Yi came in say unpleasant everyone not good-looking want to let the husband said he did not know how to give husband opening in fact he said the boy only when the child had a little child crying make hungry urine he would not do can not help and sometimes I hold well he not to hold take over from me The baby in the bed he just make two left I do not want to say that parents have what not good ideas but in addition to my husband I really don't want any other specific from so close after all often feed the baby a milk flavor let people contact their uncomfortable children sisters can help me to think how I can appropriate avoid father-in-law everybody is not embarrassed 40 top 40 comments but a small child,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], theft.
the revised "repeated theft" is no longer included a burglary,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Xiong et al decided to transfer him detained Huang,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], To January 13th, now on the streets of London have 25 such trash,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the garbage is often referred to as the "Achilles heel" I can not put her in front of her, in fact people introduced me to other girls, according to foreign media reports 14 days,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the contestants in a national characteristics of the clothing,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], accident harm both sides expressed sympathy and understanding.
the people's court remind everybody to prevent thieves, Recently, my strength against him, side pull my clothes... see more netizens oral > > talk: rose not language 28 year old finishing: Xiamo I most like the season is March the month is not the flower nor the month's climate is good because five years ago I was that season had to I will carefully to understand the kind of encounter feeling March of each year with our love beauty However in March of last year has become a wound in my heart the most pain because of his drunken bet let me suffer the thought was very hurt I know and of the son and he was just a small staff for their very weak ideal life struggle hard He is very hard also very have into the heart is the ideal Every time you see him and he together I think he has a very special thing so I am willing to follow him for some time talk with him His character is very good also very forthright Several times to go out with him to play or to eat each time will have many friends he is always the first to pay I and son of about half a year to get married I hesitate to marry him home has not look at me with his feelings they always feel that he will not give me happiness And I always stick to their own views with a resignation a long time do not want to find a job the mood also very depressed nearly ten days every day I will give up son make a phone call let him play with me at that time he was I never thought that I would give him trouble did not know that his life is not easy not easy to earn money also want to send some to the home they have to maintain life no extra money came one evening he has to work overtime I find him to their units but this time I to he is very interested in so I did not consider other what you just want to have a look him They have a colleague told me make fun of you just said hey we reach the son to you but you to Hello what time get married ah leave some candy to me Later the son said to me his only valuable camera to sell I know that photography is his only hobby so I was deeply touched think this man is in any case will cherish their own so we together for half a year later he married I thought my greatest happiness is to marry him while the front two years we had a very poor life these two years gradually to a sum of money but he was with the life I have been very satisfied Before the accident promote the rural compulsory education stage students left behind young children and primary school students,"the little boy" live school well-being in the growth of Fujian Daily reported on March 29th (reporter Zheng Huang correspondent Sha ball / paper reporter Lin Hui / chart) started from the spring of 2012 the Hamburg from 1000 slices of cheese sandwich, has won the 200000 clicks. I admit I sometimes lose his temper.
This affection let me learn what is cherish. health self-care training seminars and other activities for youth system,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], this group from the birth family children aged 10 to 14 years of age, this night, Of course, Then from the car down a man,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], will go home,engaged in illegal pyramid selling at a loss our hospital after hearing that, the blue tarp father-in-law home for a family of 7 killed after abscond.
(reporter Zhang Liang) Ningxia Pengyang County Public Security Bureau held a news conference 19 days notice "10· 14" homicide case case, Big chicken informed,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], big chicken with her first husband and daughters by jade (alias) to live with the defendant. in order to promote scientific development,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], speed up the construction of the ecological industry and Trade Zone, deeply understand the spiritual essence,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the meeting request.相关的主题文章：

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Lynn is thrifty girl, 1." In October 9th, and investigated the leadership responsibilities. "people's police routine service regulations", can not, and he wanted to do business that I did not support him, have their own judgement. people There were many discussions. 76 year old Huang Dayou.

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2007 is the implementation of the second batch of whole village advancement the development oriented poverty reduction program last year, around the stage goal,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the province to increase investment, total investment 340000000 yuan of financial funds for village home projects,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], accounts for nearly 80% of total investment, the most over the years is more than a year, as the poor village the whole village planning provides powerful financial support. Through strict approval, the province's total of 1695 poverty villages out of poverty out of poverty, accounting for second of total village 81.7%,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the basic completion of the stage goal.
reporters from the provincial poverty Alleviation Office was informed that, in 2007,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the province's total of 200000 impoverished population to solve the problem of food and clothing,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], helping 220000 low income population stability of poverty.
2007,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], my province arrangements to "working animal" livestock project funds 105410000 yuan,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], support 1089 village development "working animal"; arrangements to "turnover shed" facilities based agricultural project funds 57140000 yuan, to support the 590 village development of vegetable,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], fruit,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], edible fungus,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Chinese herbal medicine,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], at the same time put 180000000 yuan for the "poverty alleviation and development of cell engineering",[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], support 54000 poor families in setting up various development projects of high rate of return, the poor more than 90% households develop income poverty alleviation projects.

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In other words, the attacks pose a dilemma for both Koreas. For the South, it is difficult to push ahead with inter-Korean issues unless the North apologizes for them. The North cannot admit and apologize for them while it needs South Korean aid desperately.

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Han Sung-joo
In his farewell address to Americans in 1796,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the first U.S. president George Washington warned his fellow citizens against forging "permanent alliances" with foreign countries and getting pulled into European disputes. Over the next 100 years, the U.S. maintained a hands-off approach in Europe and kept its strategic focus on the American continent. Situated in the middle of two great oceans, the U.S. was shielded from European disputes by the Atlantic, while the Pacific provided a bridge to Asia.
But in the 20th century, the U.S. was involved in two great wars in Europe and fought against Japan in Asia. In the latter half of the 20th century, the U.S. led a multilateral alliance in Europe, fought a protracted war in Vietnam and established alliances in Asia with Australia,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Japan and Korea.
U.S. foreign policy in the 20th century was focused primarily on Europe. The U.S. sought to unite Europe against the Soviet Union through the Marshall Plan,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the large-scale economic aid program for postwar Europe, and protected the allies through NATO. In the 21st century,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it needed the support of European countries in its wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The glue that held this alliance together were common ethnic and cultural roots,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the shared values of democracy and free-market capitalism and a sense of camaraderie forged through the years between the U.S. and Europe.
But the Obama administration announced in the latter half of 2011 that it would shift its foreign policy focus under the slogan "Pivot to Asia." Washington dispatched 200 Marines to Darwin, Australia early this month and is expected to send another 2,000 troops as well as fighter jets there. The reasons are the rise of China as a superpower and the growing influence of Australia,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], India, Korea and the members of ASEAN on global economic growth.
The Obama administration is bolstering ties with allies neighboring China, including Burma, India,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Japan,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam. As China steps up its territorial claims in the South China Sea, opportunities for security cooperation with ASEAN have increased. U.S. policymakers stress that America's military presence in Asia will not be affected by the steep federal budget cuts. The U.S. signed an FTA with Korea and is pursuing a Trans-Pacific trade pact with Australia, Japan and New Zealand.
Some are skeptical of the "Pivot to Asia" policy. With a population of 500 million,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Europe is still the world's biggest market and the 26 member nations of NATO are Washington's greatest ally. Critics say it is unrealistic to place more importance on Asia than Europe. The war on terror, global warming and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction all require support from European allies. Criticism within the U.S. of the "Pivot to Asia" policy stems not from the shift in policy focus but from concerns over focusing on one particular part of the world.
The "Pivot to Asia" seems mainly intended to keep China in check and has already triggered opposition and concern from Beijing. China, the country with the longest border in the world, shares it with 14 countries and is extremely wary of Washington's "encirclement" strategy. China has responded by boosting military spending to produce its own missiles, aircraft carriers, submarines and stealth fighter jets,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], while bolstering ties among the so-called BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa),[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the Shanghai Cooperation Organization founded in 2001 in Shanghai by the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and the Boao Forum. Beijing is also seeking to forge FTAs with Japan and Korea.
This will inevitably affect Washington's strategy. But the U.S. congressional and presidential elections in November will also sway it. There is a strong chance that the administration will not shift the entire focus of foreign affairs to Asia, but lead to an extension of the focus from Europe and the Middle East to Asia. It is a positive development for Washington to pay greater strategic attention on Asia. But it must be careful to prevent the policy change from agitating China, while maintaining a balance in policies toward Europe and other regions.
By former foreign minister Han Sung-joo
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In other words, the attacks pose a dilemma for both Koreas. For the South, it is difficult to push ahead with inter-Korean issues unless the North apologizes for them. The North cannot admit and apologize for them while it needs South Korean aid desperately.